Michael Howard
There are reports that Howard was interviewed by the police over the whole cash-for-peerages mess. If true, a positive sign that the investigation isn’t going down partisan lines.
Btw, I seem to remember the police saying that evidence gathered and lessons learned would be made public at some point?
Aberfan
Not much to say that hasn’t been said by many others. What happend to Aberfan was just about the worst thing that can happen to any community, and what happend to the village afterwards was pretty bleak.
Anyways, The BBC stuff is quite informative.
Two contrasting quotes:
“There is no such thing as Jew and Greek, slave and freeman, male and female; for you are all one person in Christ Jesus” ~ Galatians 3: 28
“Ultimately multi-national identities are harder to express than national ones.” ~ Cardinal O’Brien
What is Christianity if it is not a multi-national identity? I find it extraordinary that someone who believes that they have a vocation to be a Christian leader of some sort could even think that Nationalism is in some way superior to his own religion, let alone actually say so in an interview.
I’m neither Catholic nor Scottish so perhaps I should mind my own business, but I feel strongly that this is exactly the sort of political issue that Churches should avoid getting involved in; they will only divide (perhaps seriously) their flock, and worse still, could end up awakening (or in the case of Scotland re-awakening) old Sectarian bigotry.
Recent election results for Socialist parties in Western Europe
The following shows the % of the vote won at a national level. In countries with a mixed electoral system, the proportional vote has been used. By Socialist I mean non-Communist/non-New Left “Socialist” parties (I could have used to phrase “Social Democratic” instead) and by recent I mean the last legislative election in the country in question. Italy has not been included because the main Socialist party (ie; the reformist wing of the old PCI) ran on a joint list with what is, basically, the left wing of the old DC’s. Italy has always had strange politics, but it’s interesting it it’s own right. Anyway:
- Labour 35.2%
- SPD 34.3%
- SPÖ 35.7%
- DNA 32.7%
- SAP 35.0%
- SD 25.9% (Denmark)
- PS 24.1%
- PvdA 27.3%
- PS/SPA 27.9%*
- LSAP 23.4%
- PSOE 42.6%
- PS 46.4% (Portugal)
- SD 24.5% (Finland)
- Labour 10.7% (Ireland)
- SDP/PSS/PS 23.3%
Some interesting patterns there.
*Total vote of both the Walloon and Flemish Socialist parties.
Backroom Rainbows
Just thought I’d play around with some numbers:
Current partisan makeup of Welsh Assembly
Labour 29, Plaid 12, Tories 11, Liberals 6, Indies 2
If these numbers are repeated in May next year, then for an Anti-Socialist/Rainbow coalition to be formed, the Indies (both ex-Labour types, representing normally Labour constituencies) would have to vote for it. I’m going to assume (perhaps incorrectly) that both independents have some principles and a sense of political danger (for to vote for a Tory administration would pretty much kill of the political careers of either, and would hardly be a statement of leftwing principle) and that as such, this won’t happen.
So, this means that the non Socialist parties will need to win 31 seats to seize power; just two seats more than in 2003 and one less than their total in 1999. This assumes that no Plaid or the LibDem AM’s get’s cold-feet over a deal with the Tories, something that, I think, can’t be ruled out.
Sounds, if not really easy, possible doesn’t it? But it might prove tricky in practice; first, there is the distinct possibility that Labour might knock off one or both of the Indies (Marek seems far more vulnerable than Law) and secondly, the very electoral system that makes such a crooked coalition possible, might work against it, up to a point anyway; as an example, if Labour lose a FPTP seat in Mid/West Wales, then we get a list seat in exchange (o/c the reverse of that happend there in 2003). The electoral system is not built to allow large changes in seat numbers; if a party loses a lot of seats, then that party will have had to have lost a lot of votes (ie; what happend to Plaid in 2003). At some point I’m thinking of working our how many FPTP seats Labour would have to lose in each area to gain a list seat in each area (admittedly this would have to be based on the 2003 numbers; things will obviously change in 2007, but the ‘03 numbers should still be of some use).
The best thing for Labour to do to fight this off, is to get a decent turnout of it’s voters in May; if that happens, Labour gets a majority, period. But Labour has to have a backup plan of some sort; the best would seem to be to have quiet conversations with Plaid or Liberal AM’s unhappy about having anything to do with the Tories, but there are, of course, other possibilities. Regardless, if Labour’s enemies are going to do deals in backrooms, then Labour must be prepared to do likewise; such is politics when you have PR.
Austrian Election
Exit polls (and early results) indicate that the SPÖ has sprung an upset and beaten the ÖVP by a narrow margin. Not one poll during the campaign gave the ÖVP a lead of under 3pts.
Exactly what the next coalition will be won’t be known for a while; it seems to depend on whether or not Haider’s latest outfit can pass the 4% barrier or not. If they don’t (and it’s touch-and-go at present) the SPÖ and the Greens should have enough seats between them to form a Red-Green coalition.
